N.J. leaders face tough choices on budget

Gov. Christie has lived up to his core political promise in his first seven weeks in office, aggressively cutting government spending and shining a harsh light on waste.

But in recent weeks he also has had to make tough choices no candidate touts on the campaign trail. His budget cuts have targeted programs for the blind, aid to hospitals, and NJ Transit, triggering a proposed fare increase. In trying to replenish the state's unemployment fund, Christie called for reducing benefits for those who lose their jobs.

The list of controversial choices is likely to get longer March 16, when Christie presents his first full budget, which must close an $11 billion gap between projected spending needs and tax collections.

The presentation represents an opportunity, and also a hazard, for the Republican governor and the Democratic Legislature.

For Christie, the budget will be his first chance to attack state spending as a whole. Nothing shows a governor's priorities more clearly than when he must decide where to spend limited resources and where to cut back.

But the cuts could also be painful. When spending reductions go from abstract to reality, they are often less popular.

"There's no question in my mind that when the cuts start hitting home that people will be upset about it. The question is, will they accept the governor's rationale?" said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The trims Christie has already made have given Democrats some footing to fight back against a Republican who had seemed like a political juggernaut since Election Day. Their criticism could backfire, though, if they look like obstructionists blocking spending reforms that many New Jerseyans endorse.

Christie won over voters in November - and still scores strong approval ratings - with promises of tough choices to rein in spending, and the public already blames Democrats for much of the state's fiscal problems.

"The Democrats need to be on board with the governor on this because I think at the end of the day, the governor is not going to be the only one who's going to suffer because of the need for cuts," Murray said.

The back-and-forth between the governor and Legislature began playing out in February, when Christie closed a $2.2 billion budget shortfall he inherited. Those trims came from a limited menu of choices, given that the fiscal year was more than half over and much of the budget was already spent.

For the spending plan that begins July 1, Christie will be able to look at the entire budget and have more options available when it comes to reshaping state government. He and his advisers have labeled the state's daunting financial situation a challenge, but one that has prepared the public to accept drastic change.

Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R., Monmouth), a Christie ally, said residents see the need for "bold and tough" decisions.

"The strategy is to tell the truth about what is practical and sustainable and possible given the reality of life and that there needs to be a repositioning to make New Jersey competitive again," Kyrillos said.

While running for governor, Christie backed mostly noncontroversial options - cutting overtime costs, for example. And there are some possible trims that would inflict little immediate pain, such as skipping the state's $3 billion pension payment.

But even using that option would still leave a significant gap, leading Christie to warn of cuts in aid to municipalities and school districts. Internal discussions have included scenarios with reduced property-tax rebates, or none at all, according to two administration officials familiar with those talks, potentially reversing a campaign pledge to protect the checks.

"The problem that Gov. Christie faces is that any cut means that some constituent will get hurt," said Brigid Harrison, a political scientist at Montclair State University.

After Christie's first round of spending reductions, Democrats welcomed some of those constituents to legislative hearings to decry the impact. The Democratic State Committee set up a Web site with a feature letting visitors find the cuts to schools and hospitals in their communities.

When Christie announced his unemployment plan, which included reduced benefits in order to ease a tax hike on business, Democrats painted the governor as insensitive to the needs of the average worker.

And when a report said Christie was considering scaling back property-tax rebates, Democrats pounced with news releases that threw last year's Republican campaign rhetoric back at him.

"Once again, Gov. Christie has shown where his priorities lay, and it's not with New Jersey's middle-class taxpayers," Democratic State Chairman John Wisniewski, a Middlesex County assemblyman, said in a news release.

Democrats have contrasted the budget cuts with Christie's refusal to renew an income-tax increase on filers earning $400,000 and up.

Attacking the governor's no-holds-barred approach to the budget, however, carries its own risks.

Some Democratic veterans were critical of the party's new leaders after Christie's February budget speech, saying complaints about the process made them look petty next to a forceful governor who was downsizing government and balancing the budget without tax hikes.

Three Democratic lawmakers close to the budget said last week they have to be careful in their criticism because the public is clearly fed up with the status quo.

The outcry is likely to come from more than just partisans, though. Interest groups - the teachers union, hospitals, and others - also can be expected to fire back at the governor's cuts.

"All of those entities, from what we've seen in the past, can be very well organized and very vocal in their opposition," Harrison said. She recalled that even farmers, hardly a visible political bloc in New Jersey, captured the state's attention in 2008 when Gov. Jon S. Corzine tried to eliminate the Agriculture Department.

Christie, she said, "needs to be steeled for significant opposition."

Contact staff writer Jonathan Tamari at 609-989-9016 or jtamari@phillynews.com.